Status
ICES assesses the stock to be above BPA=MSYBtrigger and to be fished at Fpa=FMSY. The spawning stock is estimated to be 8.98 million tonnes in 2010. The spawning stock contains a number of strong year-classes but the year-classes after 2004 are weak. Therefore, the spawning stock is expected to decline in the near future even when fishing according to the management plan. The spawning stock is expected to be 7.99 million tonnes in 2011 and be reduced to 6.77 million tonnes in 2012.
Advice
ICES advice in 2011 contains three options. The management plan gives a TAC of 988 000 tonnes corresponding to a fishing mortality of 0.125. Precautionary Approach and Maximum Sustainable Yield approach both gives a TAC of 1 170 000 tonnes corresponding to a fishing mortality of 0.150. The coastal states EU, Norway, Russia, Iceland and Faroe Islands, agreed about a long term management plan in 1999. An important element in the management plan is to keep the fishing mortality below 0.125. Additionally, the parties agreed that the fishing mortality be reduced should the spawning stock fall below 5 million tonnes (Bpa). The management plan has evaluated by ICES to be in accordance with the precautionary approach. In 2010, the coastal states agreed on a TAC of 1 483 000 tonnes, which is in accordance with the long-term management plan.
IMR comments
IMR recommends to follow the management plan which gives a TAC of 988 000 tonnes in 2011. Rationale: The year-classes after 2004 are estimated to be weak, and this will lead to a reduced spawning stock in near future. The management plan has been an efficient tool for managing the stock, and IMR cannot see any good reasons for not following the management plan during a period with stock decline.
Key figures
Critical biomass limit (Blim) = 2.5 millioner tonnes
Precautionary approach biomass level (Bpa) = 5.0 millioner tonn
Maximum sustainable yield biomass level (MSYBtrigger) = 5.0 millioner tonn
Critical fishing mortality limit (Flim) = Not defined
Precautionary approach fishing mortality (Fpa) = 0.15
Maximum sustainable yield fishing mortality (FMSY) = 0.15
management plan fishing mortality: F = 0.125
