Status
ICES assess the blue whiting stock to be below Blim and that it is harvested above FMSY. Year-classes 2005-2009 are among the lowest observed. Due to recent poor recruitment, SSB declined from a peak of 6.8 million tonnes in 2003 to 1.3 million tonnes at the beginning of 2010, which is below Blim. The spawning stock is expected to be low the next years due to low recruitment and in 2011 and 2012 it is expected to be around 0.8 million tones.
Advice
ICES advice in 2011 contains three options. The management plan gives a TAC of 40 100 tonnes corresponding to a fishing mortality of 0.05. The transition to Maximum Sustainable Yield framework by 2011 and 2015 gives 50 700 to 223 000 tonnes, respectively. The Precautionary Approach gives a TAC of zero landings. The coastal states EU, Norway, Iceland and Faroe Islands, agreed about a long term management plan in 2008. An important element in the management plan is to keep the fishing mortality at 0.18. Additionally, the parties agreed that the fishing mortality be reduced should the spawning stock fall below 2.25 million tonnes (Bpa). The management plan is evaluated by ICES and found to be in accordance with the precautionary approach. In 2010, the coastal states agreed on a TAC of 548 000 tonnes, which after the assessment in 2009 was in accordance with the long-term management plan. This TAC has after the new assessment in 2010 turned out to be too high fishing pressure in relation to the present stock status.
IMR comments
IMR recommends to follow the management plan which gives a TAC of 40 100 tonnes in 2011. Rationale: The year-classes after 2005 are estimated to be very weak, and this will lead to an exceedingly reduced spawning stock in near future. The management plan was agreed by the coastal states in 2008 and evaluated by ICES in 2009 and found to be in accordance with the precautionary approach. IMR cannot see any good reasons for not following the management plan in relation to the present stock status.
Key figures:
Critical biomass limit (Blim) = 1.5 million tonnes
Precautionary approach biomass level (Bpa) = 2.25 million tonnes
Maximum sustainable yield biomass level (MSYBtrigger) = 2.25 million tonnes
Critical fishing mortality limit (Flim) = 0.51 (=Floss)
Precautionary approach fishing mortality (Fpa) = 0.32
Maximum sustainable yield fishing mortality (FMSY) = 0.18
Management plan fishing mortality: F = 0.18
Expected fishing mortality in 2010: F = 0.51
Expected SSB in 2011: 0,796 million tonnes
Figures show spawning stock biomass, fishing mortality, recruitment and catch for blue whiting.
