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CLIFFIMA participates in Climate Change Workshop

CLIFFIMA held a joint international scientific workshop in Ulvik, Norway on 5-9 May 2014 in conjunction with the Norway-United States Climate Change and Marine Ecosystem (NUCCME) project.

Participants at the CLIFFIMA and NUCCME Workshop at Ulvik, Norway, 5-9 May, 2014

The main objectives of the proposed workshop were to use future climate change projections such as the recent IPCC model scenarios (1) to explore how they can be used in ecosystem models to determine the likely changes under anthropogenic climate change to the lower trophic levels and determine related variables indicative of ecosystem productivity; (2) toexamine models of living marine resources to explore how to include climate features in future projections and setting of harvest control rules; and (3) to determine the potential economic and societal consequences of climate change in the two regions.

The workshop was organized into three research tracks (i.e. break-out groups). The first group considered the physical and biological responses to the climate change projections as well as climate variability. This included determination of variables indicative of ecosystem productivity as well as how the projections can be used in ecosystem models to explore the likely changes to the lower trophic levels. The second group investigated how to include climate in future projections of living marine resources and in particular the setting of harvest control rules. The third group considered the potential economic and societal consequences of the projections. The workshop consisted of a couple of presentations for each group and then the rest of the time was spent developing potential scientific papers that will be written over the coming months. It is planned to publish these papers in a special issue of a primary journal.

The titles of the selected papers include the following.

Group 1

  • Cod and climate changes: Performance of previous projections
  • Spring and fall thermal transition in the North Atlantic: Contemporary variability and future change in temperature phenology
  • Labrador Sea convection blows life to the Northeastern Atlantic
  • Projected changes in means and extremes in Large Marine Ecosystems using CMIP5 simulations: Part I - Physical Variables
  • Projected changes in means and extremes in Large Marine Ecosystems using CMIP5 simulations: Part 2 - Plankton
  • Convergence: Analysis of ecosystem relevant basin-scale physical processes in the North Atlantic and their potential for use in climate change projections
  • Understanding and predicting cod recruitment through 4D bottom up ecosystem modeling
  • Comparing spatial structure and distribution between ecosystems and its links to climate

Group 2

  • Testing whether our understanding of ecological processes and stock-recruitment relationships are sufficient for climate-based forecasts of fisheries production
  • Multispecies control rules

Group 3

  • Climate and fisheries; management resilience, robustness and response
  • Lessons learned from experiences with stocks moving across boundaries
  • A comparative study on fleet diversity and cost efficiency in the case of climate change
  • The history, the present performance, and the future potential of Harvest Control Rules

It is planned to have the papers written and published in 2015.