Many aspects of the interaction between the ocean climate and the marine ecosystem require a better understanding before the high levels of uncertainty associated with the predicted ecosystem responses to climate change can be reduced. This will mainly be achieved through monitoring and research. Large, long-lived Arctic species are generally conservative in their life history strategies, so changes, even dramatic changes, in juvenile survival may not be detected for long periods. Zooplankton, on the other hand, can respond within a year, while microorganisms generally exhibit large and rapid (within days or weeks) variations in population size, which can make it difficult to detect long-term trends in abundance. Long data series are thus essential for monitoring climate-induced change in arctic populations.
The models do not agree in terms of changes projected to wind fields, upon which ocean circulation and mixing processes depend. Thus, conclusions drawn regarding future changes to marine systems are to a large extent based on extrapolations from the response of the ocean to past changes in atmospheric circulation. This is also the case for predictions regarding the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems. There exist some qualitative answers to questions regarding climate change impacts on marine ecosystems, but rarely do models or analyses account for non-linear effects or multi-species interactions. Consequently, reliable quantitative information on the response of marine ecosystems to climate change is lacking.
This session welcomes papers that document the relation between ocean climate and ecosystem variability, and demonstrates how this knowledge may be used in estimating future changes in the Arctic.
Evolution of Arctic Ecosystems in a Warming World